Nový study by the Fraunhofer Institute and MRU GmbH has put some hard numbers on something vapers have known for a while: the illegal vape market in Europe is massive and growing fast. According to the research, nearly half of all vaping products consumed across the EU are now traded irregularly, worth around €6.6 billion. If nothing changes, that figure could hit €11 billion by 2030.

This should be a wake-up call. But judging by the direction of policy in several countries, it is not landing.

The black market is not some fringe problem. It is not a few dodgy stalls at a market. It is a €4.8 billion commercial operation supplying millions of consumers across Europe with products that have never been tested, never registered, and contain ingredients nobody has checked. These are devices with no age verification, no health warnings, no regulatory oversight. A dealer does not ask for ID. A black market seller does not care whether the person buying is 14 or 40.

This is exactly where restrictive policies are pushing people. This study clearly shows that bans and heavy taxes do not make the market disappear. They push it underground. When legal products become too expensive, too restricted, or unavailable in the flavours that actually help adults stay off cigarettes, people find other ways. Some go back to smoking. Many turn to unregulated sources — online platforms, informal sellers, grey market imports.

The irony is that the countries tightening the most are also the ones shouting loudest about protecting young people. But a black market does not protect young people. It does the opposite.

Look at the Netherlands. A flavour ban was introduced, and within a year adolescent vaping rose by 25% and youth smoking by 4%. That is not a policy success. That is a policy failure, and the data proves it. Yet Belgium, Germany and Ireland, among others, are actively discussing one. Countries are looking at the Netherlands and apparently seeing nothing worth learning from.

Adding bans on top of an already chaotic situation does not fix the underlying problem. It hands more market share to criminals.

Around 90% of vaping products imported into the EU come from China. Products enter through gateway countries like the Netherlands, Belgium and Germany, and then flow across the single market largely unchecked. Customs authorities are doing spot checks on containers that hold hundreds of thousands of units. They cannot keep up.

More bans will not solve this. They will accelerate it.

What actually works is what Sweden, the UK and New Zealand have shown: clear regulation, proportionate rules, products that are legal and accessible, and honest communication with consumers about relative risks. When adults can access regulated products that help them stay off cigarettes, they use them. When you take those products away, you do not get abstinence. You get the black market.

Politicians drafting the next round of vaping restrictions need to read this study. Not because the black market is a reason to do nothing (nobody wants unregulated products flooding the market). But because the answer to an illegal market is not more illegality by decree. It is a functioning legal market that gives consumers a reason to stay in it.

Right now, Europe is heading in the wrong direction. The black market is the result. Smokers and vapers are paying the price. And if politicians don’t care about them, maybe they care about this: the finance ministers across the continent are also suffering.