Belgium has already banned disposable vapes. Now there are discussions about going further — restricting or banning flavoured e-cigarettes. It sounds decisive. It is not. It is a policy that will grow the black market, hand more young people access to unregulated products, and push adult smokers away from something that was actually helping them.

A new study by the Fraunhofer Institute lays out the scale of the problem. Nearly half of all vaping products consumed across the EU are already traded illegally — worth €6.6 billion. Belgium, as one of Europe’s main logistics hubs for Chinese vape imports, sits right in the middle of this. The country already has one of the lower irregular market shares in the EU at 26%, largely because it has functioning trade infrastructure and reporting. A flavour ban will not maintain that. It will accelerate the shift to unregulated sources.

Look at what happened in the Netherlands. A flavour ban came in, and within a year adolescent vaping rose by 25% and youth smoking by 4%. The ban that was supposed to protect young people made things worse for young people. Because a black market seller does not check IDs. A criminal supply chain does not register products or test ingredients. When you remove the legal option, you do not remove the demand. You just remove the oversight.

Adult vapers in Belgium overwhelmingly use non-tobacco flavours. Across the EU, 68% of vapers rely on fruit and candy flavours — not because they are being marketed to, but because these flavours help break the connection with cigarettes. Research shows that adults using flavoured e-cigarettes have 230% higher odds of quitting smoking than those using tobacco-flavoured products. Take away the flavours, and a significant share of those people go back to smoking. Some will find flavoured products on the black market instead. Neither outcome is a public health win.

Belgian politicians want to protect young people and public health. So do we. But the evidence is there, and it points clearly in one direction: restricting legal access for adults does not reduce use, it redirects it.

The Netherlands tried this. Youth smoking went up. The black market grew. Finance ministers lost tax revenue. And smokers lost a tool that was working.

Belgium can learn from that, or repeat it. The choice is still open.