Africa faces a critical juncture in its fight against tobacco smoking as the 2025 global target of a 30% relative reduction in tobacco use looms. While the continent has made strides in implementing tobacco control measures, the rising popularity of alternative nicotine products has sparked debates over prohibition versus regulation.

Nicotine pouches and vapes have been at the center of a heated debate among policymakers, parents, and the public health community. On one hand, research shows that pouches and  e-cigarettes are substantially safer than cigarettes, delivering nicotine without burning tobacco—which creates cancer-causing toxins. On the other hand, a surge in youth nicotine use in recent years has raised questions about young adults getting hooked on nicotine.

Can restrictive policies fuel illicit trade in nicotine products?

The surge in illicit tobacco and nicotine products underscores the failure of prohibitionist strategies. With taxes among the highest globally, legitimate products have become unaffordable for many in Africa. Unable to access regulated, legal and safer options, people who smoke are turning to illicit products.

A temporary suspension on nicotine pouches in Kenya for example, a product embraced by harm reduction advocates globally as a less harmful alternative to smoking, has not reduced demand. Instead, it has created a thriving black market where quality control is non-existent, and consumers are left vulnerable to unregulated, potentially harmful products.

Black markets for nicotine pouches and e-cigarettes have emerged largely due to strict regulatory environments and limited legal availability in many African countries. High excise taxes, outright bans, and inadequate consumer education often drive consumers to unregulated sources. Smuggling networks exploit these regulatory gaps to supply unlicensed products, which are often cheaper but of questionable quality and safety often resulting in a rise in smoking rates and crime.

The demand for harm-reduction products stems from increasing awareness of the health risks associated with traditional smoking and the growing acceptance of alternative nicotine delivery systems. However, restrictive policies—such as outright bans in countries like Uganda and harsh import restrictions in others—have limited access to safer, regulated options. Consequently, consumers turn to black markets to meet their needs, exposing themselves to unregulated and potentially hazardous products.

Does evidence-based regulation outperform prohibition?

Nicotine consumption regulation should balance harm reduction, consumer protection, and realistic expectations about human behavior while facilitating informed consumer choice. Regulation should provide consumers with accurate information and ensure transparent and trustworthy manufacturing and marketing without stifling innovation.

Attempts to curb nicotine use through prohibition or aggressive regulation have not only failed but often exacerbated the problem. For instance, South Africa’s ban on the sale of tobacco products to mitigate the spread of COVID-19; before the ban was put in place, as much as 35 per cent of the total cigarette market in the country was illicit. After it was implemented, 100 per cent of the market became illicit. Criminal operators are now embedded in the supply chain and it will take years to reverse that.

Moving beyond the binary of prohibition versus unregulated markets, thoughtful, evidence-based regulation can protect public health, empower consumers in Africa, and accommodate human behavior. Embracing a nuanced regulatory framework in 2025 will allow us to better navigate nicotine consumption and create a healthier, more informed community.